Monday, December 30, 2013

Carl Icahn Apple Stake Now Valued Over $2 Billion

Carl Icahn is an activist investor who is widely followed by the public. His antics in mergers and other activist efforts have been almost legendary in some cases. It remains to be seen whether or not his efforts will work in forcing Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) into a $150 billion stock buyback or not. Now we have the full Icahn holdings seen in a 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission and this shows just how much of what he owns.

The full holdings are up to $24.635 billion as of September 30. That compares to about $21.5 billion as of the end of September. The position for Apple was shown to be as two different holdings.

The first was some 775,012 shares, worth some $369.487 million at the time. The second, and larger, was shown to be some 3,100,051 shares worth $1.477 billion at the time. In total that brings Icahn’s Apple stake up to a total of 3.875 million shares. it is very likely that his holding is larger now, but the value based upon the close today at $528.16 would be $2.046 billion. That position was worth only $1.47 billion at the end of September because the stock price was down at $473.98 at the time.

Again, it is likely that the position is larger by now. Investors like to track these holdings of Carl Icahn and others. Now you know what it is in Apple. Call it $2 billion.

Will Tim Cook allow a $2 billion position to swing him around in his management? That remains to be seen.

Sunday, December 29, 2013

10 Best Undervalued Stocks To Own For 2014

A year ago, I thought that Genworth (NYSE:GNW) was a high-risk insurance story that was trading at a substantial discount to its long-term value. With the stock up almost 130% since then, I feel pretty good about that call. Looking at the company again today, though, I'm not nearly as optimistic about the stock. While the stock is still undervalued on a long-range ROE model, the growing challenges in mortgage insurance and long-term care insurance bode poorly for nearer-term value creation.

U.S. Mortgage Insurance Profitable Again ��But Will It Last?
One of the relatively few bright spots in Genworth's first quarter results was the return of the U.S. mortgage insurance business to profitability. Prices for insurance have been improving recently, and the U.S. housing market has been looking better. While that was a nice result, I'm sorely concerned that it will not last.

On the whole, I don't think the company has huge legacy issues to worry about, but competition is a different story. Radian (NYSE:RDN) and MGIC (NYSE: MTG) have recapitalized with the intention of writing more business (and near 52-week highs), and the outlook for better rates has led Arch Capital (Nasdaq: ACGL) to get into the business through its acquisition of CMG. With NMI Holdings also writing policies again, the U.S. mortgage insurance market is getting more crowded and I don't see how this is a good thing for Genworth.

10 Best Undervalued Stocks To Own For 2014: Dollar Tree Inc.(DLTR)

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety stores in the United States and Canada. Its stores offer merchandise primarily at the fixed price of $1.00. The company operates its stores under the names of Dollar Tree, Deal$, Dollar Tree Deal$, Dollar Giant, and Dollar Bills. Its stores offer consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and beauty care, as well as household consumables, such as paper, plastics, household chemicals, in select stores, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise, which includes toys, durable housewares, gifts, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, and other items; and seasonal goods, such as Easter, Halloween, and Christmas merchandise. As of April 30, 2011, it operated 4,089 stores in 48 states and the District of Columbia, as well as 88 stores in Canada. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By John Maxfield]

    If you're anything like me, two things went through your head when you saw this. First, you regret that you missed out on the investment opportunity. Since the end of 2009, shares in all three of these companies, led by Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR  ) , have simply trounced the broader market. Even the worst performer of the bunch, Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO  ) , beat it by nearly a factor of two.

  • [By Ethan Roberts]

    Shares of Dollar Tree (DLTR) were substantially lower this morning after the company reported third-quarter earnings. Dollar Tree earnings tallied 59 cents per diluted share of DLTR stock, which missed analyst estimates by two pennies.

  • [By Brendan Byrnes]

    Brendan: Not a problem at all. What about the surprising amount of dollar-store companies that are public? You have Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO  ) , Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR  ) , Dollar General (NYSE: DG  ) . You mention, in particular, Family Dollar, which is the lowest market cap out of all of those, as doing the best, an exceptional company. Why?

10 Best Undervalued Stocks To Own For 2014: Schlumberger N.V.(SLB)

Schlumberger Limited, together with its subsidiaries, supplies technology, integrated project management, and information solutions to the oil and gas exploration and production industries worldwide. The company?s Oilfield Services segment provides exploration and production services; wireline technology that offers open-hole and cased-hole services; supplies engineering support, directional-drilling, measurement-while-drilling, and logging-while-drilling services; and testing services. This segment also offers well services; supplies well completion services and equipment; artificial lift; data and consulting services; geo services; and information solutions, such as consulting, software, information management system, and IT infrastructure services that support oil and gas industry. Its WesternGeco segment provides reservoir imaging, monitoring, and development services; and operates data processing centers and multiclient seismic library. This segment also offers variou s services include 3D and time-lapse (4D) seismic surveys to multi-component surveys for delineating prospects and reservoir management. The company?s M-I SWACO segment supplies drilling fluid systems to improve drilling performance; fluid systems and specialty tools to optimize wellbore productivity; production technology solutions to maximize production rates; and environmental solutions that manages waste volumes generated in drilling and production operations. Its Smith Oilfield segment designs, manufactures, and markets drill bits and borehole enlargement tools; and supplies drilling tools and services, tubular, completion services, and other related downhole solutions. The company?s Distribution segment markets pipes, valves, and fittings, as well as mill, safety, and other maintenance products. This segment also provides warehouse management, vendor integration, and inventory management services. Schlumberger Limited was founded in 1927 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By David Smith]

    It's now two to one among the big oil-field services companies regarding the North American oil and gas markets. Through Monday, Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB  ) , the largest company in the sector had expressed concern about the market and its short-term prospects, while Halliburton (NYSE: HAL  ) , the second-biggest member of the group, joined Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI  ) in assessing our continent's activity levels more positively.

  • [By Aaron Levitt]

    With fracking and advanced drilling techniques becoming the norm — both onshore and off — the firms that do all of that heavy lifting are set to win big over the longer term. And there are none bigger than Halliburton (HAL) and Schlumberger (SLB). Both remain the undisputed kingpins of fracking and oil services.

5 Best Safest Stocks To Invest In 2014: Caterpillar Inc.(CAT)

Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives worldwide. It operates through three lines of businesses: Machinery, Engines, and Financial Products. The Machinery business offers construction, mining, and forestry machinery, including track and wheel tractors, track and wheel loaders, pipelayers, motor graders, wheel tractor-scrapers, track and wheel excavators, backhoe loaders, log skidders, log loaders, off-highway trucks, articulated trucks, paving products, skid steer loaders, underground mining equipment, tunnel boring equipment, and related parts. It also manufactures diesel-electric locomotives; and manufactures and services rail-related products and logistics services for other companies. The Engines business provides diesel, heavy fuel, and natural gas reciprocating engines for Caterpillar machinery, electric power generation systems, marine, petrol eum, construction, industrial, agricultural, and other applications. It offers industrial turbines and turbine-related services for oil and gas, and power generation applications. This business also remanufactures Caterpillar engines, machines, and engine components; and offers remanufacturing services for other companies. The Financial Products business provides retail and wholesale financing alternatives for Caterpillar machinery and engines, solar gas turbines, and other equipment and marine vessels, as well as offers loans and various forms of insurance to customers and dealers. It also offers financing for vehicles, power generation facilities, and marine vessels. The company markets its products directly, as well as through its distribution centers, dealers, and distributors. It was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. and changed its name to Caterpillar Inc. in 1986. Caterpillar Inc. was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Peoria, Illinois.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Matt Thalman]

    Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT  ) rose 0.88% after the release of the strong homebuilder confidence and industrial production numbers, the latter of which takes into account not only output from U.S. factories but also from mines and utility companies. And since Caterpillar is a big player in the mining equipment field, investors surely saw this report as good news for the company.

  • [By Rebecca McClay]

    Building roads and bridges takes a lot of heavy equipment, and that's exactly what Caterpillar (CAT) makes. Whether a project needs backhoes, excavators, pavers or the articulated trucks to get asphalt and other building materials from one location to another, the Peoria, Ill., manufacturer is the industry leader both in the U.S. and abroad.

10 Best Undervalued Stocks To Own For 2014: Tupperware Corporation(TUP)

Tupperware Brands Corporation operates as a direct seller of various products across a range of brands and categories through an independent sales force. The company engages in the manufacture and sale of kitchen and home products, and beauty and personal care products. It offers preparation, storage, and serving solutions for the kitchen and home, as well as kitchen cookware and tools, children?s educational toys, microwave products, and gifts under the Tupperware brand name primarily in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, the Asia Pacific, and North America. The company provides beauty and personal care products, which include skin care products, cosmetics, bath and body care, toiletries, fragrances, nutritional products, apparel, and related products principally in Mexico, South Africa, the Philippines, Australia, and Uruguay. It offers beauty and personal care products under the Armand Dupree, Avroy Shlain, BeautiControl, Fuller, NaturCare, Nutrimetics, Nuvo, and Swissgar de brand names. The company sells its Tupperware products directly to distributors, directors, managers, and dealers; and beauty products primarily through consultants and directors. As of December 26, 2009, the Tupperware distribution system had approximately 1,800 distributors, 61,300 managers, and 1.3 million dealers; and the sales force representing the Beauty businesses approximately 1.1 million. The company was formerly known as Tupperware Corporation and changed its name to Tupperware Brands Corporation in December 2005. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Oliver Pursche]

    European large-cap pharmaceuticals like Novartis (NVS) �and Bristol Meyers Squibb (BMY) �count amongst some of our favorite stocks right now, as do U.S. multinationals that are growing revenue and margins in Asia ��Tupperware (TUP) �is a shining example. Stay away from utilities and energy stocks, as they are likely to be the laggards over the next year.

  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    Shares of Herbalife have gained 0.9% to $79.51 this morning in pre-open trading. Its shares have gained 139% this year, a nice gain, but lagging Nu Skin Enterprises 271% rise. Avon Products�(AVP), another multi-level marketer, has gained 21% so far this year, while Tupperware Brands�(TUP) has risen 49%.

Saturday, December 28, 2013

Financial Times’ moves to single global edition

The Financial Times, one of the few global newspapers that charge for online stories, will move further away from its print legacy by eliminating most editions and steering more resources to digital offerings.

The British paper, owned by Pearson, plans to launch a single global print edition starting in the first half of 2014, which will result in closing of the multiple editions that are updated throughout the night for readers in various countries where it was distributed.

With breaking news published real-time on FT.com, the combined edition -- which could be a single section product -- will contain more pre-planned stories and the articles that first appear on the website.

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"The 1970s-style newspaper publishing process – making incremental changes to multiple editions through the night – is dead," wrote FT editor Lionel Barber in a memo to staff that was published on its website Wednesday.

A "small print-focused team," working alongside a larger web production team, will produce the paper. Changes in late evenings will be minimal and more standard pages will designed and laid out earlier in the day. There will be more flexibility for a U.K. edition with U.K. news pages, but the overall design effort will focus on "show pages" that showcase data and graphics, he said

Barber also called for changes in news gathering, urging reporters and editors to shift away from "reactive" news stories to value-added "news in context." This editorial shift toward features and analysis pieces means editors will have to step up their efforts in planning stories and "intelligent commissioning" of assignments to take advantage of peak viewing times.

With reporters required to write more contextual stories, The Financial Times' online edition will "concentrate on smart aggregation of content from our own journalists and third parties," Barber sai! d.

"Where once we planned around page lay-outs, we will now adopt a news bulletin-style approach," he said.

The Financial Times was one of the first major newspapers to establish a global subscription business. Last year, the paper's online subscriptions surpassed its print circulation for the first time. Digital subscriptions now surpass print sales by more than 100,000 accounts, the paper said.

Thursday, December 26, 2013

Wall Street's Concerns on Apple Are Misplaced

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Apple (AAPL) shares took their worst beating in a while Monday, dropping 3.2% to $450.12 on concerns that the company didn't announce pre-order sales for the 5c. Those concerns, however, are misguided.

This is the first time that Apple has released two phones at the same time, having announced the iPhone 5c and 5s at an event in Cupertino, Calif., last week. Traditionally, Apple announces only one phone so this is a big change for the company. As such, I wouldn't expect to hear pre-order numbers from Apple until next week, when the 5s finally goes on sale (customers can pre-order it online starting at 12:01 a.m. Friday).

In a press release, Apple today announced that the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c will be available to customers on Friday, September 20 at 8:00 a.m. local time at Apple retail stores in addition to the pre-ordering online. Both phones will be available in the US, Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Puerto Rico, Singapore and the UK.

Pre-orders for the 5c went live on Friday on both Apple's Web site and carrier's Web sites. Sprint (S) already said delivery for the yellow version of the 16 GB version of the 5c is pushed back because of heavy demand. However, CNBC's Jon Fortt tweeted that Apple may announce a 5c pre-order figure Tuesday, though he wasn't sure one would come. If we get an iPhone 5c preorder tally from $AAPL -- and I'm not sure we will -- it will come Tuesday morning @CNBC— Jon Fortt (@jonfortt) September 14, 2013 If Apple doesn't announce something by next Monday, the first full weekend that both phones are available, then it becomes a different issue. Since announcing both phones on Sept. 10, Apple shares have dropped sharply, losing 9.7% in market cap. Much of that was caused by several downgrades on the stock, following concerns that the iPhone 5c was priced too high for emerging markets, particularly China. Also of concern to Wall Street and analysts was the lack of announcement between Apple and China Mobile (CHL), though Apple has been granted a license for China Mobile's network. AAPL ChartAAPL data by YCharts

As far as actual figures go for the new iPhones, until Apple announces something it's just conjecture and speculation. Citi has said it expects Apple sold 2.2 million iPhone 5c devices this past weekend. Citi analyst Glen Yeung rates Apple shares "neutral."

This comes as Citi cut its growth estimates for the global smartphone market. For 2013, it expects 1.13 billion smartphones to ship, growing at 51% year over year. However, for 2014 Citi now expects 25% year-over-year growth for smartphones, down from a prior view of 27% growth. For 2015, Citi expects 14% growth in smartphones, down from a prior view of 21% growth, citing smartphone saturation in developed markets.

One thing that is certain is that one of Apple's Chinese carrier partners, China Unicom (CHU), announced more than 100,000 reservations were taken for the iPhone 5s and 5c, despite no subsidies being announced for the phones.

The markets will continue to speculate, as they usually do, until Apple announces something official. --Written by Chris Ciaccia in New York >Contact by Email. Follow @Chris_Ciaccia

Monday, December 23, 2013

Monetarism: Printing Money To Curb Inflation

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Picture yourself as the host of an economists' dinner party where no one is having any fun (perhaps not a hard thing to imagine). There are two competing schools of thought on what should be done to fix the party. The Keynesian economists in the room would tell you to break out the party games and snacks, and then force people into a rousing game of Twister. Meanwhile, Milton Friedman and his monetarist pals have a different solution. Control the booze, and let the party take care of itself.

Of course, the economy is slightly more complicated than a dinner party gone bad. But the fundamental question is the same: Is it better to intervene when things go wrong, or attempt to prevent problems before they start? This article will explore the rise of the laid-back monetarist approach to controlling inflation, touching upon its proponents, successes and failures.

The Basics of Monetarism
Monetarism is a macroeconomic theory borne of criticism of Keynesian economics. It was named for its focus on money's role in the economy. This differs significantly from Keynesian economics, which emphasizes the role that the government plays in the economy through expenditures, rather than the role of monetary policy. To monetarists, the best thing for the economy is to keep an eye on the money supply and let the market take care of itself. In the end, the theory goes, markets are more efficient at dealing with inflation and unemployment.

Milton Friedman, a Nobel Prize-winning economist who once backed the Keynesian approach, was one of the first to break away from commonly accepted principles of Keynesian economics. In his work "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960" (1971), a collaborative effort with fellow economist Anna Schwartz, Friedman argued that the poor monetary policy of the Federal Reserve was the primary cause of the Great Depression in the United States, not problems within the savings and banking system. He argued that markets naturally move toward a stable center, and an incorrectly set money supply caused the market to behave erratically. With the Bretton Woods system's collapse in the early 1970s and the subsequent increase in both unemployment and inflation, governments turned to monetarism to explain their predicaments. It was then that this economic school of thought gained more prominence.

Monetarism has several key tenets:

Control of the money supply is the key to setting business expectations and fighting inflation's effects. Market expectations about inflation influence forward interest rates. Inflation always lags behind the effect of changes in production. Fiscal policy adjustments do not have an immediate effect on the economy. Market forces are more efficient in making determinations. A natural unemployment rate exists; trying to lower the unemployment rate below that rate causes inflation. Quantity Theory of Money
The approach of classical economists toward money states that the amount of money available in the economy is determined by the equation of exchange:


MV=PT
Where:
M = the amount of money currently in circulation over a set time period
V = the "velocity" of money (how often money is spent or turned over during the time period)
P = the average price level
T = the value of expenditures or the number of transactions

Economists tested the formula and found that the velocity of money, V, often stayed relatively constant over time. Because of this, an increase in M resulted in an increase in P. Thus, as the money supply grows, so too will inflation. Inflation hurts the economy by making goods more expensive, which limits consumer and business spending. According to Friedman, "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." While economists following the Keynesian approach did not completely discount the role that money supply has on gross domestic product (GDP), they did feel that the market would take more time to react to adjustments. Monetarists felt that markets would readily adapt to more capital being available.

Money Supply, Inflation and the K-Percent Rule
To Friedman and other monetarists, the role of a central bank should be to limit or expand the money supply in the economy. "Money supply" refers to the amount of hard cash available in the market, but in Friedman's definition, "money" was expanded to also include savings accounts and other on-demand accounts.

If the money supply expands quickly, then the rate of inflation increases. This makes goods more expensive for businesses and consumers and puts downward pressure on the economy, resulting in a recession or depression. When the economy reaches these low points, the central bank can exacerbate the situation by not providing enough money. If businesses - such as banks and other financial institutions - are unwilling to provide credit to others, it can result in a credit crunch. This means there is simply not enough money to go around for new investment and new jobs. According to monetarism, by plugging more money into the economy, the central bank could incentivize new investment and boost confidence within the investor community.

Friedman originally proposed that the central bank set targets for the inflation rate. To ensure that the central bank met this goal, the bank would increase the money supply by a certain percentage each year, regardless of the economy's point in the business cycle. This is referred to as the k-percent rule. This had two primary effects: It removed the central bank's ability to alter the rate at which money was added to the overall supply, and it allowed businesses to anticipate what the central bank would do. This effectively limited changes to the velocity of money. The annual increase in money supply was to correspond to the natural growth rate of GDP.

Expectations
Governments had their own set of expectations. Economists had frequently used the Phillips curve to explain the relationship between unemployment and inflation, and expected that inflation increased (in the form of higher wages) as the unemployment rate fell. The curve indicated that the government could control the unemployment rate, which resulted in the use of Keynesian economics in increasing the inflation rate to lower unemployment. During the early 1970s, this concept ran into trouble as both high unemployment and high inflation were present.

Friedman and other monetarists examined the role that expectations played in inflation rates; specifically, that individuals would expect higher wages if inflation increased. If the government tried to lower the unemployment rate by increasing demand (through government expenditures), it would lead to higher inflation and eventually to firms firing workers hired to meet that demand bump. This would occur any time the government tried to reduce unemployment below a certain point, commonly known as the natural unemployment rate.

This realization had an important effect: monetarists knew that in the short run, changes to the money supply could change demand. But in the long run, this change would diminish as people expected inflation to increase. If the market expects future inflation to be higher, it will keep open market interest rates high.

Monetarism in Practice
Monetarism rose to prominence in the 1970s, especially in the United States. During this time, both inflation and unemployment were increasing, and the economy was not growing. Paul Volcker was appointed as chairman of the Federal Reserve Board in 1979, and he faced the daunting task of curbing the rampant inflation brought on by high oil prices and the Bretton Woods system's collapse. He limited the money supply's growth (lowering the "M" in the equation of exchange) after abandoning the previous policy of using interest rate targets. While the change did help the inflation rate drop from double digits, it had the added effect of sending the economy into a recession as interest rates increased.

Since monetarism's rise in the late 20th century, one key aspect of the classical approach to monetarism has not evolved: The strict regulation of banking reserve requirements. Friedman and other monetarists envisioned strict controls on the reserves held by banks, but this has mostly gone by the wayside as deregulation of the financial markets took hold and company balance sheets became ever more complex. As the relationship between inflation and the money supply became looser, central banks stopped focusing on strict monetary targets and more on inflation targets. This practice was overseen by Alan Greenspan, who was a monetarist in his views during most of his near-20-year run as Fed chairman from 1987 to 2006.

Criticisms of Monetarism
Economists following the Keynesian approach were some of the most critical opponents to monetarism, especially after the anti-inflationary policies of the early 1980s led to a recession. Opponents pointed out that the Federal Reserve failed to meet the demand for money, which resulted in a decrease in available capital.

Economic policies, and the theories behind why they should or shouldn't work, are constantly in flux. One school of thought may explain a certain time period very well, then fail on future comparisons. Monetarism has a strong track record, but it is still a relatively new school of thought, and one that will likely be refined further over time.

Sunday, December 22, 2013

The Rise of High-Frequency Traders, and Where the Market's Getting Liquidity

I recently met up with longtime New York Stock Exchange floor trader Doreen Mogavero at the NYSE. In this video, Mogavero responds to my question of whether we've become too obsessed with the idea that markets benefit from more liquidity. Have a look (transcript follows):

Morgan Housel: When I think about that prior to the high-frequency trading era, I don't recall stories about lack of liquidity, people trying to buy stocks in the 1990s and there wasn't enough liquidity. Do we over exaggerate the benefits of liquidity?

Doreen Mogavero: No, I don't think you over exaggerate the benefits of liquidity, but the market dynamics have changed, the market demographics have changed. Someone is always providing liquidity. Who that might be changes from time to time, right? It was hedge funds for a while; now it's high-frequency traders. Retail investors currently are not in this market, at least not in a huge way. So someone has to provide liquidity, and currently, high-frequency traders are doing that. They are a big part of how much trades here on a daily basis, but trades in the entire marketplace, not just here. So they are providing liquidity, and I'm a free market person, so you're asking the wrong person to say something bad about liquidity because I like liquidity and I like everybody to participate. 

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Saturday, December 21, 2013

U.S. Home Building Is Surging, but Job Growth Isn't

The resurgent U.S. housing market has sent builders calling again for Richard Vap, who owns a drywall installation company. Vap would love to help -- if he could hire enough qualified people.

"There is a shortage of manpower," says Vap, owner of South Valley Drywall in Littleton, Colo. "We're probably only hiring about 75 or 80 percent of what we actually need."

U.S. builders and the subcontractors they depend on are struggling to hire fast enough to meet rising demand for new homes. Builders would be starting work on more homes -- and contributing more to the economy -- if they could fill more job openings.

In the meantime, workers in the right locations with the right skills are commanding higher pay.

The shortage of labor ranges across occupations -- from construction superintendents and purchasing agents to painters, cabinet makers, and drywall installers. The National Association of Home Builders says its members have complained of too few framers, roofers, plumbers, and carpenters. The shortage is most acute in areas where demand for new homes has recovered fastest, notably in Arizona, California, Texas, Colorado, and Florida.

The problem results largely from an exodus of workers from the industry after the housing bubble burst. Experienced construction workers lost jobs. And many found new work -- in commercial building or in booming and sometimes higher-paying industries like mining and natural gas drilling -- and aren't eager to come back.

Hispanic immigrants, largely from Mexico, who had filled jobs during the boom were among those who left the industry and, in some cases, the United States.

Dave Erickson, president of Greyhawk Homes in Columbus, Ga., lost an employee who took a job this year in Texas. The former employee is now installing fiber-optic cable and earning 30 percent more than he did as a construction supervisor.

"I think he's frustrated with the cycle we went through in recent years," Erickson says.

A shortage of labor in a well-paying industry might seem incongruous in an economy stuck with a still-high 7.5 percent unemployment rate. But it reflects just how many former skilled construction workers have moved on to other fields.

In 2006, when the boom peaked, 3.4 million people worked in homebuilding. By 2011, the figure had bottomed at about 2 million. As of last month, about 2.1 million people were employed in residential construction.

Jobs in the industry did rise 4.1 percent in April from a year earlier, faster than overall U.S. job growth. But they'd have to surge 24 percent more to reach 2.6 million, their 2002 level -- "the last time the market was normal," says David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders.

For now, the industry is building faster than it's hiring. In February, builders began work on single-family homes at the fastest pace in five years. And in March, new home construction broke the 1 million mark for the first time since June 2008. Permits for future construction are also near a five-year high.

In the 12 months that ended in March, housing starts surged 47 percent. Yet over the same period, the industry's employment grew just 3.7 percent.

Normally, a rebound in home construction helps propel an economy after a recession. But even with the steady gains in housing starts, sales and prices since last year, the industry remains below levels considered healthy.

The National Association of Home Builders says nearly half its members who responded to a survey in March said a scarcity of labor has led to delays in completing work. Fifteen percent have had to turn down some projects.

"I can't find qualified people to fill the positions that I have open," says Vishaal Gupta, president of Park Square Homes in Orlando, Fla. If not for the labor shortage, "I would be able to build more homes this year and meet more demand than I can handle today."

Gupta's company is facing a side effect of the labor shortage: Demand for higher pay from qualified workers. On some occasions, he says he's been outbid by rivals that need contractors for their own projects. Gupta's preferred paint contractor left for a rival that paid more. His new cabinet contractor is about 10 percent more expensive than the one Gupta used before.

The higher pay they're handing out helps explain why builders have been gradually raising prices on new homes. The median price was $247,000 in March, up about 12 percent from the same month in 2011, the Commerce Department says.

The industry may have to look more aggressively for workers at vocational schools, federally funded programs like Job Corps and elsewhere, says Crowe of the homebuilders group.

"We'll have to recruit more," he says.

Vap, owner of South Valley Drywall, rode out the downturn after the housing crash in part by relying on commercial construction projects. He cut his residential construction staff from 244 in 2006 to 80 in 2009.

This year, Vap has hired 15 field employees for residential construction and says he needs to hire 35 more to do the work he foresees in 2013.

During the 2005-2006 housing boom years, Gupta had to bring in workers from Texas because there weren't enough employees in Florida to keep up with construction. He doubts many of those veterans will return.

"A lot of people who are from other states or from Mexico are not willing to come back here as fast as they did last time because of what they experienced," Gupta says.

Between 2005 and 2010, 1.4 million Mexicans moved from the United States to Mexico -- roughly twice as many as in the previous five-year period, according to the Pew Research Center. Though an estimated 11 million people remain in the United States illegally, the influx of illegal immigration from Mexico has essentially stopped, says Douglas Massey, a professor of sociology at Princeton University.

"The Mexican economy is doing quite well, with strong growth in manufacturing and both skilled and unskilled services," Massey notes. "If construction demand picks up, we may see an uptick in Mexican immigration, but I think the boom years are likely over."

Crowe and other economists predict that as demand for new homes strengthens further, higher wages will woo back many laborers who took up other jobs during the downturn.

The homebuilders association is pushing Congress to let more immigrants enter the country through a worker visa program. The association cites census data showing that foreign-born workers make up about 22 percent of the U.S. home construction work force. It estimates there are 116,000 unfilled jobs.

Still, even if builders find more workers to hire, two other factors could hold back the industry for a while: A tight supply of building materials and ready-to-build land. Surveys by the National Association of Home Builders show that builders have grown concerned about those obstacles.

In part, that's why Crowe thinks employment in single-family home building won't return to its 2002 total until 2016. And he isn't unhappy about that.

"In a perverse sort of way, the mild housing recovery is probably a good thing," Crowe says. "We need to rebuild the infrastructure of the industry."

Friday, December 20, 2013

Top 10 China Stocks To Watch For 2014

The emerging markets that we've come to know so well, the BRIC countries, are finally coming to an end -- at least, as emerging markets. 

China and Brazil are moving away from having industrial economies and are becoming ever more consumption-driven. India continues to suffer from a depreciating rupee and a poor economy, and Russia remains an unpredictable political quagmire.  

A paradigm shift in global industrial manufacturing is beginning to take place, and areas like Indonesia, West Africa and Latin America could emerge as the next bull markets for investors. As the U.S. economy rebounds, it will undoubtedly remain consumer-driven, which is good news for one country in particular. 

The U.S. accounts for 78% of this country's exports, with the five largest U.S. import categories last year being electrical machinery ($56.8 billion), automobiles and parts ($53.5 billion), machinery ($42.3 billion), mineral fuel and crude oil ($39.9 billion), and optical and medical instruments ($10.4 billion). 

Top 10 China Stocks To Watch For 2014: eLong Inc.(LONG)

eLong, Inc. operates as an online travel service provider in the People?s Republic of China. The company provides its customers with travel information and the ability to book rooms, air tickets, vacation packages, and other travel related services utilizing call center and Web-based distribution technologies. It facilitates the customers to book rooms in approximately 10,000 hotels in 450 cities across China, and fulfills air ticket reservations in approximately 80 cities across China. In addition, the company offers the ability to book rooms at approximately 100,000 hotels outside of China; and provides the customers informative content relevant to hotel and air travel decisions, including tourist and event site destination information, hotel facility information, and photos. eLong markets its services through online marketing, traditional media advertising, co-marketing with established brands of other companies, and direct marketing. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People?s Republic of China. eLong, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Expedia Asia Pacific Limited.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Shareholders Unite]

    The main on-line competitors are:

    Qunar.com, a travel website owned by Baidu (BIDU) and a few venture fundseLong (LONG), backed by Tencent (TCEHY.PK) and Expedia (EXPE). Analyst expect it to generate $163M in revenue next year

    That is pretty serious competition, needless to say. Having the backing of Baidu or Expedia offers several advantages, but Ctrip is the biggest and most established company. It's quite difficult to compare Qunar.com to Ctrip, for the simple sake that Qunar is a private company. However, there can be little doubt that it constitutes serious competition:

Top 10 China Stocks To Watch For 2014: China Telecom Corp Ltd (CHA)

China Telecom Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides wireline and mobile telecommunications services in the People's Republic of China. The company?s services include wireline voice, mobile voice, Internet, managed data and leased line, value-added services, integrated information application services, and other related services, as well as prepaid calling cards. Its wireline voice services include local wireline services, domestic long distance wireline services, and international long distance wireline services. The company's mobile voice services comprise local calls, domestic long distance calls, international long distance calls, intra-provincial roaming, inter-provincial roaming, and international roaming. Its Internet access services consist of wireline Internet access services, including dial-up and broadband services, and wireless Internet access services. The company's integrated information application services include Best Tone services, which provide customers with phone number storage, enquiry, and call transfer services; and information technology-based integrated solutions, such as system integration, outsourcing, special advisory, information application, knowledge services, and software development. Its managed data and leased line services consist of services relating to optic fiber and circuits, such as optic fiber and circuit leasing, virtual private network, and bandwidth leasing. The company also offers other services, such as sales, rental, repairs, and maintenance of equipment; and provides consulting services, and e-commerce and booking services, as well as in the sale of telecommunications terminals. It serves government, enterprise, and residential customers. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. China Telecom Corporation Limited is a subsidiary of China Telecommunications Corporation.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Evan Niu, CFA]

    While China Mobile has never officially offered the device, the two smaller carriers do. China Unicom (NYSE: CHU  ) was the first Chinese iPhone carrier in 2009, and China Telecom (NYSE: CHA  ) followed suit in 2012. China Unicom and China Telecom have been consistently chipping away at China Mobile's lead in the lucrative market for 3G subscribers, a trend that has widely been attributable in part to the iPhone.

Best Energy Companies To Invest In Right Now: Home Inns & Hotels Management Inc.(HMIN)

Home Inns & Hotels Management Inc. develops, leases, operates, franchises, and manages a chain of economy hotels in the People?s Republic of China. The company operates its hotels under the Home Inn brand name. As of April 28, 2011, it had approximately 800 Home Inns in operation and 1,000 Home Inns sealed in franchise agreements. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People?s Republic of China.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Seth Jayson]

    Home Inns & Hotels Management (Nasdaq: HMIN  ) reported earnings on May 13. Here are the numbers you need to know.

    The 10-second takeaway
    For the quarter ended March 31 (Q1), Home Inns & Hotels Management missed estimates on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.

  • [By Belinda Cao]

    The Bloomberg China-US Equity Index (CH55BN) of the most-traded Chinese companies in the U.S. slumped 3.4 percent last week to a seven-month low of 89.04. The gauge traded at 13.5 times estimated earnings, 3.6 percent below the S&P�� valuation, data compiled by Bloomberg show. China Southern Airlines Co. (ZNH) and China Eastern Airlines Corp. (CEA) lost more than 6 percent April 5, while Home Inns & Hotels Management Inc. (HMIN) tumbled 16 percent in the week.

  • [By Jim Jubak]

    The New York traded ADRs of China's Home Inns and Hotels Management (HMIN) have climbed 15.5% from September 24 to the close on October 11.

    Part of the reason is a October 10 recommendation from Goldman Sachs that added the ADRs to its top pick list. And part of the reason is a huge surge in domestic travel during China's recently concluded National Day holiday week. (Home Inns and Hotels Management is a member of my Jubak's Picks portfolio.)

Top 10 China Stocks To Watch For 2014: Perfect World Co. Ltd.(PWRD)

Perfect World Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, operation, and licensing of online games primarily in the People?s Republic of China, the United States, and the Rest of Asia. It develops online games based on its game engines and game development platforms. The company?s 3D massively multiplayer online role playing games (MMORPGs) include Perfect World, an adventure and fantasy game with traditional Chinese settings; Legend of Martial Arts, an adventure story of Chinese swordsmen set in an ancient kingdom; and Perfect World II, which is set in a similar content and graphic background as Perfect World. It also offers Zhu Xian that is based on martial arts focused adventure set in a fantasy world; Chi Bi, a war story developed based on ancient Chinese history known as the Three Kingdoms; Hot Dance Party, a 3D online casual game; Pocketpet Journey West, a 3D MMORPG based on the classical novel of Chinese literature, Journey to the West ; Battle of the Immortals, a mysterious adventure, which enables game players to travel between eastern and western cultures, and adventures in historic sites and turf wars; and Fantasy Zhu Xian, a 2D turn-based MMORPG based on the Internet fantasy novel Zhu Xian. It also involves in the production and distribution of films, as well as television advertising activities. The company was founded in 2004 and is based in Beijing, the People?s Republic of China.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Sean Williams]

    What: Shares of Perfect World (NASDAQ: PWRD  ) , a China-based online video game developer, soared as much as 13% after the company reported better-than-expected first-quarter results.

Top 10 China Stocks To Watch For 2014: Renesola Ltd.(SOL)

ReneSola Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of solar wafers and solar power products. It offers virgin polysilicons, monocrystalline and multicrystalline solar wafers, and photovoltaic cells and modules. The company also provides cell and module processing services. Its products are used in a range of residential, commercial, industrial, and other solar power generation systems. The company sells its solar wafers primarily to solar cell and module manufacturers. It principally operates in Mainland China, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea, India, Australia, Germany, Italy, Spain, Belgium, France, the Czech Republic, and the United States. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Jiashan, the People?s Republic of China.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Dan Caplinger]

    On Thursday, ReneSola (NYSE: SOL  ) will release its latest quarterly results. The key to making smart investment decisions on stocks reporting earnings is to anticipate how they'll do before they announce results, leaving you fully prepared to respond quickly to whatever inevitable surprises arise. That way, you'll be less likely to make an uninformed knee-jerk reaction to news that turns out to be exactly the wrong move.

  • [By Paul Ausick]

    Notable earnings reports currently on tap for next week: Qihu 360 Technology Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: QIHU), Avago Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ: AVGO), LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK), Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF), Joy Global Inc. (NYSE: JOY), Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB), JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO), Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc. (NYSE: KKD), and ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE: SOL).

  • [By Dan Caplinger]

    But Trina gave a troubling update to its quarterly guidance a couple weeks ago, saying that it shipped 390-400 megawatts of solar modules during the quarter, down from its original 420-430 megawatt estimate. With gross margins of just 1% to 3%, Trina isn't faring as badly as peer ReneSola (NYSE: SOL  ) , which posted negative gross margins in its quarterly report earlier this month. Yet Trina still isn't making enough money to come close to profitability in the near future.

Top 10 China Stocks To Watch For 2014: China Security & Surveillance Technology Inc. (CSR)

China Security & Surveillance Technology, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, installs, distributes, and services surveillance and safety products, systems, and software in the People?s Republic of China. The company?s products include standalone digital video recorders (DVRs); embedded DVRs; mobile DVRs; real-time hard-compression coding cards; DVR compression boards; digital cameras; intelligent high-speed dome cameras; intelligent control system software platforms; perimeter security alarm systems; monitors; and radio frequency identification terminals and data collectors. It serves various customers, which include governmental entities, such as customs agencies, courts, public security bureaus, and prisons; non-profit organizations, including schools, museums, sports arenas, and libraries; and commercial entities consisting of airports, hotels, real estate, banks, mines, railways, supermarkets, and entertainment venues. The company is headquartered in S henzhen, the People?s Republic of China.

Top 10 China Stocks To Watch For 2014: Sina Corporation(SINA)

SINA Corporation provides online media and mobile value-added services (MVAS) in the People?s Republic of China. It provides advertising, non-advertising, and free services through SINA.com, Weibo.com, and SINA Mobile. SINA.com offers free interest-based channels that provide region-focused format and content, including news, sports, automobile-related news, finance, entertainment, luxury, technology, digital, tools, collectibles, video, music, and wireless application protocol, as well as interactive platform for fashion-conscious users to share comments and ideas on a range of topics, such as health, cosmetics, and beauty. The company's microblogging platform, Weibo.com, enables its users to follow the hottest topics being discussed online, as well as discussions related to people they know. Weibo accounts consist of celebrities, commercial enterprises, government entities, and grass root Internet users. Its SINA Mobile service allows users to receive news and informatio n, download ring tones, mobile games and pictures, and participate in dating and friendship communities. The company also offers SINA Game, which serves as an interactive platform that provides users with downloads and gateway access to popular online games; SINA eReading, a shop for book reviews; SINA.net, an enterprise solutions platform to assist businesses and government bodies; and SINA Mall, an online shopping Website. In addition, it provides a platform for Chinese bloggers; photo-sharing platform; free email, VIP mail, and corporate email for enterprise users; audio and video-based instant messaging tools; proprietary search technology; and classified advertising services, as well as hosts topic-specific discussion forums in Chinese language; and creates user-maintained and supported online communities. The company has strategic cooperation agreement with China Unicom (Hong Kong) Limited. SINA Corporation was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the Peop le?s Republic of China.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Kevin Chen]

    You may know that the Chinese government keeps its tech companies on a short leash. However, Chinese regulations shouldn't scare you out of your investments because the government-company relationship is a two-way street. Just look at the history of Baidu� (NASDAQ: BIDU  ) , SINA� (NASDAQ: SINA  ) , and Sohu� (NASDAQ: SOHU  ) .

  • [By Rick Munarriz]

    Celebrities have a funny way of lifting a platform's visibility. Twitter was doing fine as a place for tech-forward folks to share short messages, but it really took off once entertainers took to pecking out 140-character missives. The same scenario played out in China with SINA's (NASDAQ: SINA  ) Weibo. The moment top athletes, rockers, and movie stars took to Weibo, it became the undisputed micro-blog of choice for the world's most populous nation.

  • [By Paul Ausick]

    Over the past 12 months, shares of Qihoo 360 are up more than 200%, compared with gains of about 46% at Sina Corp. (NASDAQ: SINA) and about 20% at Baidu Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU), two other booming Chinese Internet players.

Top 10 China Stocks To Watch For 2014: Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd.(QIHU)

Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. provides Internet and mobile security products in the People's Republic of China. Its principal products include 360 Safe Guard, an Internet security product for Internet security and system optimization; 360 Anti-Virus, an anti-virus application to protect users? computers against trojan horses, viruses, worms, adware, and other forms of malware; and 360 Mobile Safe, a security program for the Google Android, Apple iOS, and Nokia Symbian smartphone operating systems. The company?s platform products comprise 360 Safe Browser, a Web browser; 360 Personal Start-up Page, a default homepage of 360 Safe Browser and a key access point to popular and preferred information and applications; 360 Application Store, a key access point to securely obtain and manage software and applications; and 360 Safebox, a solution that protects users against thefts of personal account information. It also provides online advertising services, including online marketi ng services and search referral services; and Internet value-added services comprising the operation of Web games developed by third-parties, remote technical support, and cloud-based services. The company was formerly known as Qihoo Technology Company Limited and changed its name to Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. in December 2010. Qihoo 360 Technology Co. was founded in 2005 and is based in Beijing, the People?s Republic of China.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Jon C. Ogg]

    Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. (NYSE: QIHU) was reiterated as Buy, but estimates were raised and the target price was raised to $84 by BofA/Merrill Lynch. Here was our report on Qihoo 360 this morning.

  • [By Rick Munarriz]

    Is it a coincidence that Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU  ) rolled out a rival search engine last summer and that Baidu has come up short in each of its first two reporting periods where it had to compete with Qihoo 360 for the entirety of the quarter?

  • [By Kevin Chen]

    Compared to Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU  ) , Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU  ) , arguably, has�inferior products,�so why has Qihoo stock almost tripled its investors' money over the past year while Baidu keeps hitting new 52-week lows?

  • [By Rick Munarriz]

    Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU  ) may be taking a page out of the Bing playbook.

    Reports late last week claim that the new Chinese dot-com darling is in talks to acquire Sohu.com's (NASDAQ: SOHU  ) Sogou search engine.

Top 10 China Stocks To Watch For 2014: Hampton Roads Bankshares Inc(HMPR)

Hampton Roads Bankshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Bank of Hampton Roads (BOHR) and Shore Bank that provide community and commercial banking services primarily to individuals and small to medium-sized businesses. It offers traditional loan and deposit banking services, as well as telephone banking, Internet banking, remote deposit capture, and debit cards. The company also accepts commercial and consumer deposits that consist of various forms of demand and time accounts, including checking accounts, interest checking, money market accounts, savings accounts, certificates of deposit, and IRA accounts. In addition, it provides a range of commercial, real estate, and consumer lending products and services; commercial and industrial loans; construction loans; real estate-commercial mortgage; real estate-residential mortgage; and installment loans to individuals. Further, the company offers travelers? checks, coin counters, wire services, and safe deposit b ox services. Additionally, it provides letters of credit and standby letters of credit, and cash management products to commercial customers. The company also offers insurance products to businesses and individuals; securities, brokerage, and investment advisory services; and non-deposit investment products, including stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and insurance products, as well as engages in originating and processing mortgage loans. As of June 2, 2011, the company operates 48 banking offices in Virginia and North Carolina; and 8 banking offices in the eastern shore of Maryland and Virginia. It operates a network of sixty-seven ATM machines. The company was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Norfolk, Virginia.

Top 10 China Stocks To Watch For 2014: China Automotive Systems Inc.(CAAS)

China Automotive Systems, Inc., through its interests in Sino-foreign joint ventures, engages in the manufacture and sale of power steering systems and other component parts for the automotive industry in the People?s Republic of China. It offers a range of steering system parts for passenger automobiles and commercial vehicles. The company provides 4 separate series, 307 models of power steering, including rack and pinion power steering, integral power steering, electronic power steering and manual steering, steering columns, steering oil pumps, and steering hoses. China Automotive Systems, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Jing Zhou City, the People?s Republic of China.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Richard Schmidt]

    China Automotive Systems (CAAS), which makes auto systems and components, reported record-high net sales for the third quarter. The report excited investors, who bid the stock up about 30% for the month.

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Can Abbvie Inc (NYSE:ABBV) Trump Gilead Sciences, Inc.'S (NASDAQ:GILD) HCV Lead?

AbbVie Inc (NYSE:ABBV), which was spun off from Abbott Labs (NYSE:ABT) in January 2013, is well positioned to take advantage of the competitive hepatitis C virus (HCV), especially against Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD).

The HCV market will likely be more competitive than many on the Street expect. A recent Bloomberg article featuring an interview with the Express Scripts (NASDAQ:ESRX) chief medical officer, Steve Miller, stated that the high price of the new HCV regimens is not going to be sustainable and that a less convenient, cost effective regimen could gain favorable formulary coverage.

[Related -Abbvie Inc (NYSE:ABBV): Ready To Shift Gears In 2014?]

Such comments from the biggest U.S. drug benefits manager bode well for companies such as AbbVie. Other players, particularly in Europe, may take a similar stance.

Gilead and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) have established an extraordinarily high cost ceiling with Sovaldi and Olysio ($84,000 and $66,360, respectively, for 12 weeks of treatment).

[Related -Three Stocks Set For FDA News In Early December]

BMO Capital Markets analyst Alex Arfaei says he does not believe convenience is as important for an 8-12 week treatment regimen that produce a cure compared with, for example, chronic HIV treatment.

AbbVie could price its oral regimen at roughly $60,000 for 12-weeks of treatment, including rebates and discounts (e.g. wholesale acquisition cost, or WAC, of about $80,000 with 25 percent discounts). This should provide a significant discount relative to Gilead's Sovaldi-ledipasvir fixed dose combo (WAC of $84,000 for Sovaldi alone, maybe about $100,000 for the fully distributed cost).

Arfaei noted that these next generation costly regimens will likely be rationed for more advanced HCV patients (with fibrosis or cirrhosis). Moreover, there is a meaningful opportunity for AbbVie's relatively less convenient, but highly effective regimen as a more economic option.

Gilead estimates there are abou! t 4.1 million U.S. patients and another 2.8 million people living with the disease in the European Union. The company says less than half of those patients have been diagnosed, and less than 10 percent has been treated.

The comments from Miller mean that Express Scripts may approve Abbvie's regimen instead of Sovaldi if Abbvie's drug is priced lower. This assumes significance given Express Scripts' is the biggest U.S. drug benefits manager, whose decisions affect about 100 million patients. The company filled 1.5 billion drug prescriptions in 2013, or 38 percent of the total prescriptions in the U.S.

Recently, AbbVie released top-line phase III results for the investigational three direct-acting-antiviral (3-DAA) regimen plus ribavirin (RBV) in patients with chronic, genotype 1 (GT1) hepatitis C virus (HCV).

In the 394-patient study, 96 percent of patients who previously failed pegylated interferon (INF) and RBV treatment, including approximately 49 percent prior null responders, achieved sustained virologic response at 12 weeks (SVR12) with the 12-week regimen.

The majority of patients were GT1a, considered the more difficult-to-treat sub-type, but the regimen were equally effective in both GT1a and GT1b. Virologic relapse or breakthrough was seen in 2 percent of patients receiving the regimen. In addition, the discontinuation rate due to adverse events was 1 percent.

This is the second of six phase-3 trials studying AbbVie's 3-DAA regimen, and the results again confirmed earlier phase-2 studies. Although, this trial did not include patients with cirrhosis, one should see data in those patients from the TURQUOISE-II study expected by January 2014 and that study includes Rx naïve and experienced patients with compensated cirrhosis.

Arfaei said these are the more advanced patients, many of whom are being "warehoused" until the newer regimens are available. This is the greatest unmet need in HCV because many of these patients will need costly liver transplants.

A! bbvie's g! oal is to cure patients as completely as possible and to lift their sustained viral response as high as possible. Notably, AbbVie's regimen is proving to be more or less equal to Gilead' Sovaldi, achieving near-universal cure rates in important trials of patients with the virus' difficult-to-treat genotype 1.

But, as of now, Gilead is years ahead of competitors in treating genotype 2 and 3 patients who constitute more than 15 percent of hepatitis C patients in the U.S. Sovaldi is the only new HCV antiviral to show effectiveness in genotypes 2 and 3.

Nevertheless, the results from the recent studies potentially position AbbVie to be a stiff competitor against Gilead over an effective HCV regimen.

Arfaei forecasts a strong launch for AbbVie's HCV regimen in late 2014/early 2015, with global sales of $950 million in 2015, peaking at about $3 billion in 2018.

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

5 Stocks Breaking Out on Big Volume

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Professional traders running mutual funds and hedge funds don't just look at a stock's price moves; they also track big changes in volume activity. Often when above-average volume moves into an equity, it precedes a large spike in volatility.

>>5 Stocks Set to Soar on Bullish Earnings

Major moves in volume can signal unusual activity, such as insider buying or selling -- or buying or selling by "superinvestors."

Unusual volume can also be a major signal that hedge funds and momentum traders are piling into a stock ahead of a catalyst. These types of traders like to get in well before a large spike, so it's always a smart move to monitor unusual volume. That said, remember to combine trend and price action with unusual volume. Put them all together to help you decipher the next big trend for any stock.

>>5 Rocket Stocks Worth Buying This Week

With that in mind, let's take a look at several stocks rising on unusual volume today.

IdaCorp

IdaCorp (IDA) is engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution, sale and purchase of electric energy. This stock closed up 3.2% at $53.13 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 1.17 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 276,588

Volume % Change: 332%

From a technical perspective, IDA gapped up notably higher here and broke out above some near-term overhead resistance at $52.94 with heavy upside volume. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last three months and change, with shares moving higher from its low of $45.24 to its intraday high of $53.44. During that uptrend, shares of IDA have been making mostly higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. This move on Monday is now quickly pushing shares of IDA within range of triggering another big breakout trade. That trade will hit if IDA manages to take out Monday's high of $53.44 to its 52-week high at $54.74 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in IDA as long as it's trending above Monday's low of $52.17 or above its 50-day at $50.85 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 276,588 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then IDA will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $58 to $60.

Federated Investors

Federated Investors (FII) is a provider of investment management products and related financial services. This stock closed up 4% at $27.20 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 3 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 689,819

Volume % Change: 379%

From a technical perspective, FII spiked sharply higher here right off its 200-day moving average of $26.38 and back above its 50-day moving average of $27.19 with heavy upside volume. This move is starting to push shares of FII within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if FII manages to take out Monday's high of $27.89 to some more near-term overhead resistance at $28.71 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in FII as long as it's trending above its 200-day at $26.38 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that this near or above 689,819 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then FII will set up to re-test or possibly take out its 52-week high at $30.87. Any high-volume move above $30.87 will then give FII a chance to tag $32 to $33.

China Mobile Games and Entertainment Group

China Mobile Games and Entertainment Group (CMGE), a mobile gaming company, has a diversified portfolio of games for feature phones and smartphones. This stock closed up 3.7% to $19.10 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 309,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 78,245

Volume % Change: 227%

From a technical perspective, CMGE spiked noticeably higher here right above its 50-day moving average of $17.14 with strong upside volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of CMGE within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if CMGE manages to take out Monday's high of $19.22 to some more near-term overhead resistance levels at $20.44 to $21 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in CMGE as long as it's trending above Monday's low of $17.85 or above its 50-day at $17.14 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 78,245 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then CMGE will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance level at its all-time high of $23.35. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give CMGE a chance to tag $30.

Momenta Pharmaceuticals

Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA) operates kidney dialysis centers and provides related lab services mainly in dialysis centers and in contracted hospitals across the U.S. This stock closed up 3.2% at $17.81 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 1.12 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 353,662

Volume % Change: 251%

From a technical perspective, MNTA spiked notably higher here right above its 50-day moving average of $16.77 with bullish upside volume flows. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last two months and change, with shares moving higher from its low of $13.76 to its recent high of $18.15. During that uptrend, shares of MNTA have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of MNTA within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if MNTA manages to take out Monday's high of $17.90 to its 52-week high at $18.15 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in MNTA as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $16.77 or above $16, and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 353,662 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then MNTA will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $20 to $23.

Herbalife

Herbalife (HLF) is a global nutrition company that sells weight management, healthy meals and snacks, sports and fitness, energy and targeted nutritional products as well as personal care products.. This stock closed up 9.4 % to $74.83 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 7.21 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 2.70 million

Volume % Change: 191%

From a technical perspective, HLF spiked sharply higher here right above its 50-day moving average of $67.15 with heavy upside volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of HLF within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if HLF manages to take out Monday's high of $77.29 to its 52-week high at $77.39 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in HLF as long as it's trending above $73 or above $72 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 2.70 million shares. If that breakout hits soon, then HLF will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $90 to $100.

To see more stocks rising on unusual volume, check out the Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>5 Stocks Ready to Break Out



>>3 Big Stocks on Traders' Radars



>>5 Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Monday, December 16, 2013

Top Growth Companies To Watch In Right Now

LONNDON -- To me, capital growth and dividend income are equally important. Together, they provide the total return from any share investment and, as you might expect, my aim is to invest in companies that can beat the total return delivered by the wider market.

To put that aim into perspective, the FTSE 100 has provided investors with a total return of around 3% per annum since January 2008.

Quality and value
If my investments are to outperform, I need to back companies that score well on several quality indicators and buy at prices that offer decent value.

So this series aims to identify appealing FTSE 100 investment opportunities and today I'm looking at�WPP� (LSE: WPP  ) (NASDAQ: WPPGY  ) , which provides marketing communications services such as advertising and public relations.

With the shares at 1190 pence, WPP's market cap is 15,054 million pounds.

This table summarizes the firm's recent financial record:

Year to December

Top Growth Companies To Watch In Right Now: TrueBlue Inc.(TBI)

TrueBlue, Inc. provides temporary blue-collar staffing services in the United States. It supplies on demand general labor to various industries under the Labor Ready brand; skilled labor to manufacturing and logistics industries under the Spartan Staffing brand; and trades people for commercial, industrial, and residential construction, and building and plant maintenance industries under the CLP Resources brand. The company also provides mechanics and technicians to the aviation maintenance, repair and overhaul, aerospace manufacturing, and assembly industries, as well as to other transportation industries under the Plane Techs brand; and temporary drivers to the transportation and distribution industries under the Centerline brand. It primarily serves small and medium-size businesses. The company was formerly known as Labor Ready, Inc. and changed its name to TrueBlue, Inc. in December 2007. TrueBlue, Inc. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Tacoma, Washington.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Jonathan Yates]

    Even though the stock market rallied on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's remarks with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) and Standard & Poor's 500 Index (NYSE: SPY) surging, the long term winners will be stocks in the staffing industry such as Paychex(NASDAQ: PAYX), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Robert Half (NYSE: RHI), and Labor SMART (OTCBB: LTNC).

Top Growth Companies To Watch In Right Now: Sara Lee Corporation(SLE)

Sara Lee Corporation engages in the manufacture and marketing of a range of branded packaged meat, bakery, and beverage products worldwide. Its packaged meat products include hot dogs and corn dogs, breakfast sausages, sandwiches and bowls, smoked and dinner sausages, premium deli and luncheon meats, bacon, beef, turkey, and cooked ham. It also offers frozen baked products, which comprise frozen pies, cakes, cheesecakes, pastries, and other desserts. In addition, Sara Lee provides roast, ground, and liquid coffee; cappuccinos; lattes; and hot and iced teas, as well as refrigerated dough products. The company sells its products under Hillshire Farm, Ball Park, Jimmy Dean, Sara Lee, State Fair, Douwe Egberts, Senseo, Maison du Caf

Hot Growth Companies To Watch In Right Now: Nordstrom Inc.(JWN)

Nordstrom, Inc., a fashion specialty retailer, offers apparel, shoes, cosmetics, and accessories for women, men, and children in the United States. It offers a selection of brand name and private label merchandise. The company sells its products through various channels, including Nordstrom full-line stores, off-price Nordstrom Rack stores, Jeffrey? boutiques, treasure & bond, and Last Chance clearance stores; and its online store, nordstrom.com, as well as through catalog. Nordstrom also provides a private label card, two Nordstrom VISA credit cards, and a debit card for Nordstrom purchases. The company?s credit and debit cards feature a shopping-based loyalty program. As of September 30, 2011, it operated 222 stores, including 117 full-line stores, 101 Nordstrom Racks, 2 Jeffrey boutiques, 1 treasure & bond store, and 1 clearance store in 30 states. The company was founded in 1901 and is based in Seattle, Washington.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    Shares of J.C. Penney have dropped 4.4% to $8.65 today at 9:33 a.m., while Macy’s (M) has fallen 1.2% to $42.99, Kohl’s (KSS) has dipped 0.9% to $51.56, Nordstrom (JWN) is off 0.8% to $55.99 and Dillard’s (DDS) has dropped 0.8% to $78.50.

  • [By Doug Ehrman]

    As brick-and-mortar retailers continue to look for ways to level the playing field in terms of customers' data�relative to their online brethren like Amazon.com, they're experimenting with an increasing number of technologies. A recent New York Times article detailed how Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN  ) recently ended such a test with Euclid Analytics that used customers' smartphones to track their movements within stores; in-store signs detailing the practice drew negative customer feedback, leading to the end of the experiment.

  • [By Rick Aristotle Munarriz]

    Alamy You can never know in advance all the news that will move the market in a given week, but some things you can see coming. From the release of a new video game console to an earnings report out of the world's largest retailer, here are some of the items that will help shape the week that lies ahead on Wall Street. Monday -- Host in the Machine: Most Internet users take web-hosting for granted, but leading websites and apps wouldn't be available if it wasn't for the growing fleet of servers manned by companies specializing in getting websites up and running. Rackspace (RAX) is a market darling among web hosts, and on Monday it will serve up its latest financials. This has become a competitive market as providers aim to host websites and cloud computing solutions. The end result is that analysts see Rackspace growing its revenue by a hearty 15 percent, but they also see profitability declining during the quarter. Tuesday -- KFC in China: Yum! Brands (YUM) is the parent company behind the fast food team of Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, and KFC. A surprisingly large portion of Yum! Brands' business in recent years has come from expanding its chicken chain in China. But the market has been challenging lately. Same-store sales for Chinese KFC locations plunged 14 percent in its latest quarter. As a result of its poor performance in the world's most populous nation, Yum! Brands is temporarily offering monthly same-store sales updates. It will offer an update on how October went on Tuesday after the market close. Wednesday -- Panic at the Cisco: It may seem like a long time ago, but there was a brief moment in time -- just before the dot-com bubble popped -- that Cisco (CSCO) commanded the largest market capitalization in the country. The Internet was all the rage with investors, and Cisco was the leading provider of routers, switches, and other networking gear that kept the whole web connected. The past few years have been volatile for Cisco, with the tech bellwet

Top Growth Companies To Watch In Right Now: Waste Management Inc.(WM)

Waste Management, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides waste management services to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in North America. It offers collection, transfer, recycling, and disposal services. The company also owns, develops, and operates waste-to-energy and landfill gas-to-energy facilities in the United States. Its collection services involves in picking up and transporting waste and recyclable materials from where it was generated to a transfer station, material recovery facility, or disposal site; and recycling operations include collection and materials processing, plastics materials recycling, and commodities recycling. In addition, it provides recycling brokerage, which includes managing the marketing of recyclable materials for third parties; and electronic recycling services, such as collection, sorting, and disassembling of discarded computers, communications equipment, and other electronic equipment. Further, the company e ngages in renting and servicing portable restroom facilities to municipalities and commercial customers under the Port-o-Let name; and involves in landfill gas-to-energy operations comprising recovering and processing the methane gas produced naturally by landfills into a renewable energy source, as well as provides street and parking lot sweeping services. Additionally, it offers portable self-storage, fluorescent lamp recycling, and medical waste services for healthcare facilities, pharmacies, and individuals, as well as provides services on behalf of third parties to construct waste facilities. The company was formerly known as USA Waste Services, Inc. and changed its name to Waste Management, Inc. in 1998. Waste Management, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Selena Maranjian]

    It can be good, though, with kids, to add a few individual company stocks to the mix, to keep things more interesting. A solid, dividend-paying blue chip such as Waste Management (NYSE: WM  ) can be a smart choice, in part because it's relatively easy to understand. It's reliable because garbage collection is likely to be in great demand for a long time, and the company has become a major recycler, too, even generating energy from some waste.

Top Growth Companies To Watch In Right Now: Buffalo Wild Wings Inc.(BWLD)

Buffalo Wild Wings, Inc. engages in the ownership, operation, and franchise of restaurants in the United States. The company provides quick casual and casual dining services, as well as serves bottled beers, wines, and liquor. As of July 26, 2011, it had 773 Buffalo Wild Wings locations in 45 states in the United States, as well as in Canada. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Louis Navellier]

    Sports bar chain�Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) has had a stellar year, and BWLD stock price has gained more than 100%. It looks like the company will roll right into 2014 on a tear that should continue as people head out to watch all the Bowl games and NFL playoffs. Sales and earnings momentum are excellent, and the analysts are racing to catch up as a result of the chain’s success. BWLD has posted two consecutive earnings surprises, and estimates have been raised for the final three months of this year as well as all of 2014. The stock was upgraded to an “A” in November and remains a “strong buy” at the current price.

  • [By Rich Smith]

    This series, brought to you by Yahoo! Finance, looks at which upgrades and downgrades make sense, and which ones investors should act on. Today, our headlines focus on the restaurant sector, where one analyst has just downgraded shares of Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ: BWLD  ) , while a second analyst has initiated coverage on... just about everybody else. Let's dig right into the details, beginning with the new coverage.

  • [By Roberto Pedone]

    Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) is an owner, operator and franchiser of restaurants featuring a variety of boldly-flavored, craveable menu items. This stock closed up 6% to $103.58 in Wednesday's trading session.

    Wednesday's Volume: 1.55 million

    Three-Month Average Volume: 402,120

    Volume % Change: 319%

    From a technical perspective, BWLD ripped higher here back above its 50-day moving average of $98.38 with heavy upside volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of BWLD within range of triggering major breakout trade. That trade will hit if BWLD manages to take out its intraday high on Wednesday of $105.32 and then once it clears is 52-week high at $106.03 with high volume.

    Traders should now look for long-biased trades in BWLD as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $98.38 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 402,120 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then BWLD will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $110 to $120.

Top Growth Companies To Watch In Right Now: Crocs Inc.(CROX)

Crocs, Inc. and its subsidiaries engage in the design, development, manufacture, marketing, and distribution of footwear, apparel, and accessories for men, women, and children. The company primarily offers casual and athletic shoes, and shoe charms. It also designs and sells a range of footwear and accessories that utilize its proprietary closed cell-resin, called Croslite. The company?s footwear products include boots, sandals, sneakers, mules, and flats. In addition, it provides footwear products for the hospital, restaurant, hotel, and hospitality markets, as well as general foot care and diabetic-needs markets. Further, the company offers leather and ethylene vinyl acetate based footwear, sandals, and printed apparels principally for the beach, adventure, and action sports markets; and accessories comprising snap-on charms. The company sells its products through the United States and international retailers and distributors, as well as directly to end-user consumers th rough its company-operated retail stores, outlets, kiosks, and Web stores primarily under the Crocs Work, Crocs Rx, Jibbitz, Ocean Minded, and YOU by Crocs brand names. As of December 31, 2010, it operated 164 retail kiosks located in malls and other high foot traffic areas; 138 retail stores; 76 outlet stores; and 46 Web stores. Crocs, Inc. operates in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. The company was formerly known as Western Brands, LLC and changed its name to Crocs, Inc. in January 2005. Crocs, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Niwot, Colorado.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Chris Hill]

    Visa (NYSE: V  ) and Under Armour (NYSE: UA  ) hit new all-time highs. General Motors (NYSE: GM  ) appears to be turning the corner in Europe. And second-quarter profits for Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX  ) fell a whopping 43%. In this installment of Investor Beat, Motley Fool analysts David Hanson and Jason Moser discuss four stocks making moves on Thursday.

  • [By Brian Pacampara]

    What: Shares of plastic shoe specialist Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX  ) plummeted 21% today after its quarterly results and outlook easily missed Wall Street expectations.

Sunday, December 15, 2013

Merlin Entertainments Gains on Debut After $1.5 Billion IPO

Merlin Entertainments Plc (MERL), the private-equity backed owner of Madame Tussauds, rose in its London trading debut after raising about 957 million pounds ($1.5 billion) in an initial public offering.

The shares gained as much as 13 percent and were up 9.4 percent at 344.75 pence as of 11:35 a.m. in London. They were priced at 315 pence, near the top of an original range of 280 to 330 pence. The amount raised could increase to 1.05 billion pounds including a so-called over-allotment option, Merlin said in a statement.

"The IPO has clearly been very successful and the shares have gone to a modest premium," Jeffrey Harwood, an analyst at Oriel Securities Ltd. in London, said by phone. "Merlin is a strong company with a successful record of delivering returns for its shareholders and has strong growth prospects."

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Owned by Blackstone Group LP (BX), CVC Capital Partners Ltd. and Lego Group owner Kirkbi A/S, Merlin is among a host of private-equity backed firms attempting to list in Europe, where IPO volumes have nearly doubled to about $24 billion compared with the same period in 2012, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Development Plan

"We have long stated our belief that becoming a public company was Merlin's ultimate destiny, providing the right long-term ownership to enable the next stage of development," Nick Varney, chief executive officer of the London-based company, said in today's statement.

Merlin, which had net debt of about 1.3 billion pounds at the end of 2012, abandoned a sale to the public three years ago in favor of selling a stake to CVC, and opted against a New York IPO earlier this year, people familiar with the matter said.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Barclays Plc, along with Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc., HSBC Holdings Plc and Unicredit Bank AG managed the IPO. Lazard Ltd. was financial adviser.

Numericable SAS, France's largest cable operator owned by Carlyle Group LP and Cinven Group Ltd., also rose on its trading debut in Paris today after raising about 652 million euros ($875 million) in the country's biggest IPO in four years. The stock, priced at 24.80 euros, climbed as high as 27.40 euros.

Terra Firma Capital Partners Ltd. began an IPO of U.K. wind-power generator Infinis Plc on Oct. 21.

Friday, December 13, 2013

The Public Is NOT in the Stock Market

Despite stocks hitting new highs, the general public is not racing back into them, writes MoneyShow's Howard R. Gold, who tells you where the majority are putting their money instead.

As stocks keep hitting new milestones, more and more pundits worry we're in another stock market bubble. They cite record margin debt, euphoria over initial public offerings like that of Twitter (TWTR), and, of course, the big run we've already seen in the major indices.

And they mention the growing involvement of Main Street investors in the stock market just as we're hitting all-time highs—a contrarian sign, if there ever was one.

The only problem is there's little evidence John and Jane Public are barreling back into stocks. In fact, the data shows, overwhelmingly, that the public remains wary of, if not hostile to, stock investing, and only a small number of affluent, adventurous individuals are doing the buying.

As of last week, investors had bought $144.6 billion of mutual and exchange traded funds (ETFs) focused on US equities and $187.1 billion in international equity funds and ETFs in 2013, according to TrimTabs Investment Research, based in Sausalito, California.

The total of $331.7 billion is the most since 2000, when investors plowed $324 billion into domestic equity mutual funds alone. And we all know what happened then. But look more closely. Of the $144.6 billion in domestic equity funds US investors have bought in 2013, only $24.4 billion went into US equity mutual funds; the rest poured into ETFs.

So, mutual fund investors contributed only 17% of the total inflows into all domestic US equity funds, so far, this year.

But a fund is a fund is a fund, right?

Not really. ETFs are not good barometers of broad individual participation in the stock market, because most aren't even owned by retail investors.

"More than one-half of all ETF assets are held by financial institutions—not individuals," John C. Bogle, founder of The Vanguard Group, wrote recently. "Financial institutions own 60% of all SPDRs, 59% of iShares, and 41% of Vanguard ETFs."

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And, Bogle pointed out, a recent Vanguard study showed individuals who own ETFs "are significantly less likely to be long-term investors, and significantly more likely to be short-term speculators."

Read Howard's commentary on why investors have shunned individual stocks on MoneyShow.com.

They also represent a small sliver of the investing public.

According to the Investment Company Institute, only 3.4 million US households—3% of the total—owned ETFs in 2012, versus 53.8 million, or 44% of households, that owned mutual funds.

"ETF-owning households tended to have higher incomes, greater household financial assets, and were more likely to be headed by college-educated individuals," the ICI reported.

ETF-owning households had a median of $500,000 in financial assets, which include employer retirement plans, but not the value of a primary residence. That's eight times the $62,500 median financial assets of all US households.

NEXT PAGE: Main Street investors shun stocks

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Thursday, December 12, 2013

5 Big Trades for Year-End Gains

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- After a strong day of selling yesterday, the S&P 500 is down a "whopping" 1.3% in December. Not quite the bloodbath for stocks that it's been made out to be.

So even though stocks are pointed slightly lower this morning, it's a little premature to start panicking about the staying power of this rally.

Despite a fairly flat start to the month, history typically sits on the side of the bulls in December. In fact, it's worth noting that it's been more than five decades since a rally has ended during the final month of the calendar year. And sure enough, we're seeing some big trading opportunities starting to perk up in some of the most actively traded stocks on Wall Street. That's why we're taking a technical look at five big-name trades to take this week.

If you're new to technical analysis, here's the executive summary.

Technicals are a study of the market itself. Since the market is ultimately the only mechanism that determines a stock's price, technical analysis is a valuable tool even in the roughest of trading conditions. Technical charts are used every day by proprietary trading floors, Wall Street's biggest financial firms, and individual investors to get an edge on the market. And research shows that skilled technical traders can bank gains as much as 90% of the time.

Every week, I take an in-depth look at big names that are telling important technical stories. Here's this week's look at five high-volume stocks to trade this week.

PVH

Large-cap apparel stock PVH (PVH) is a perfect case in point. While PVH's 18% rally would be stellar performance during a normal year, 2013 has been anything but normal for stock investors, so shares have actually underperformed the broad market by 8.3% since the calendar flipped over to January. But the price action in PVH points to shares making up the difference.

PVH is currently forming a cup and handle pattern, a classic bullish price setup that's formed by a cup-shaped rounding bottom in shares that's followed up by a short-duration channel down. The buy signal comes on a move through the pattern's price ceiling at $135. Since PVH is testing that $135 resistance level this week, we could see a buy signal in PVH sooner rather than later.

LKQ is currently forming a rectangle pattern, a consolidation setup that's formed by a horizontal resistance level above shares at $34 and horizontal support at $31. The rectangle gets its name because it basically "boxes in" shares of a stock -- the break outside of the box is the trade to take. So if LKQ pushes above $34, then it's time to buy.

Even though consolidation setups -- such as the rectangle in LKQ -- move price action sideways, they come with directional bias in tow. Since LKQ's price action leading up to the rectangle was bullish, it's more likely to break out from the setup to the upside. While it's close now, it doesn't become a high-probability trade until $34 gets taken out.

Discover Financial Services

You don't have to be an expert technical analyst to figure out what's going on in shares of Discover Financial Services (DFS). This payment network is showing off some pretty basic technical price action. DFS is currently trading higher in an uptrending channel, a setup formed by a pair of parallel trend lines. When it comes to price channels, up is good and down is bad; it's as simple as that.

For Discover, trend line support has spurred a price bounce in each of the last seven times it's been tested. With shares coming down for test number eight, it's likely we'll see another trend line bounce in December. That bounce is when you want to be a buyer -- not before.

Buying off a support bounce makes sense for two big reasons: It's the spot where shares have the furthest to move up before they hit resistance, and it's the spot where the risk is the least (because shares have the least room to move lower before you know you're wrong). Remember, all trend lines do eventually break, but by actually waiting for the bounce to happen first, we're ensuring Discover can actually still catch a bid along that line.

Mylan

We're seeing the exact same price setup in shares of Mylan (MYL) right now. MYL has been one of the best-in-breed pharma stocks over the course of 2013, rallying more than 50% between January's first open and yesterday's close, and with shares approaching trendline support again, this stock looks primed for a bounce.

Mylan's channel has provided a high-probability range for this stock's price action all the way since the summer. In fact, it's been more than high-probability; it's been textbook over that time.

The 50-day moving average has been a stellar proxy for support all the way up Mylan's channel, so it's the perfect place to put a protective stop after the bounce in shares. Relative strength continues to be outsized in MYL right now – that means that this stock is statistically more likely to continue to beat the S&P 500 for the next 10 months. Wait for the bounce off of support before you buy...

Berkshire Hathaway

Not all of the names we're looking at today are bullish. Sorry Warren, but Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) is starting to look toppy right now.

Berkshire has been forming a long-term descending triangle for the last six months now. The descending triangle is formed by a downtrending resistance level above shares and a horizontal support level to the downside. Basically, as Berkshire bounces in between those two technically-important prices, it's getting squeezed closer and closer to a breakdown below support at $111. When that happens, it's time to be a seller.

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At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Jonas Elmerraji, CMT, is a senior market analyst at Agora Financial in Baltimore and a contributor to TheStreet. Before that, he managed a portfolio of stocks for an investment advisory returned 15% in 2008. He has been featured in Forbes , Investor's Business Daily, and on CNBC.com. Jonas holds a degree in financial economics from UMBC and the Chartered Market Technician designation.

Follow Jonas on Twitter @JonasElmerraji