Thanksgiving online sales may have gone above $1 billion for the first time. Walmart (NYSE: WMT) may have had record-breaking Black Friday sales. But, the big Thanksgiving holiday weekend has ended, and the marathon to December 31 has begun. It is over the next thirty days, that the winners in holiday sales will be determined.
One of the biggest questions about Thanksgiving and Black Friday is whether they pull sales which would have been made in December. If so, and holiday sales are a zero sum game, December may be disappointing for most retailers. If consumers have not satisfied their appetite for purchases and have more money in reserve, many large bricks and mortar retailers and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) have chance to post the kinds of improvement which have rarely been hit since the start of the recession.
Among the biggest problems large retailers have now is what they can give to shoppers. Companies like Walmart have already offered deals which are likely as good as they could offer. Smart consumers get to sit back and wait to see if retailers who have excess inventory will drop prices in mid-December to empty their shelves and warehouses.
Presumably Amazon has an advantage over its old world rivals. It has already said it will offer “amazing deals” every ten minutes on Cyber Monday. And, with traffic of over 100 million unique visitors a month, if it keeps that pace of “deals”, some customers may bite on what will become thousands and thousands of specials. Most retailers will not be so fortunate, because the traffic to their sites is relatively small.
Walmart has its own advantages–its presence as by far the largest retailer in the U.S.. It can afford to run a marketing machine which will spend tens of millions of dollars online and in traditional media. It reputation for “everyday low prices” has been built over decades. Walmart’s signature branding cannot be eclipsed by the promotions of any of its smaller competitors, all of which have a fraction of its revenue.
The excitement of holiday retail sales may last one four day weekend. The boring part of the holiday season has started. But, “boring” is only boring to consumers. Walmart, Amazon, and their competition have to keep heat on consumers, or risk reporting quarterly results which they can’t afford to gift to their investors.
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